We ran 30 years of historical weather (1995-2024) against each festival's own site and dates. These are the festivals most and least likely to hand you a poncho — odds, not a forecast. 73 of 227 festivals analysed so far (coverage is completing); every analysed festival's page carries its full breakdown.
Most likely to rain
Chance of at least 1mm of rain on one or more festival days, based on that site's last 30 years.
100% rain odds · 18 Jul - 7 Aug
97% rain odds · 30 Jul - 2 Aug
93% rain odds · 1-10 Aug
90% rain odds · 22-30 Aug
90% rain odds · 30 Jul - 2 Aug
90% rain odds · 21-23 Aug
87% rain odds · 11-13 Sept
87% rain odds · 13-16 Aug
83% rain odds · 30 Jul - 2 Aug
83% rain odds · 21-23 Aug
83% rain odds · 10-14 Jun
83% rain odds · 2-5 Jul
83% rain odds · 3-5 Jul
83% rain odds · 8-12 Jul
83% rain odds · 2-6 Apr
Best shot at staying dry
The lowest rain odds in the directory. Pack sun cream, tempt fate.
20% rain odds · 23-23 May
30% rain odds · 26-26 Sept
37% rain odds · 19-19 Jul
43% rain odds · 5-5 Sept
43% rain odds · 23-24 May
43% rain odds · 28-30 Aug
43% rain odds · 9-9 Aug
50% rain odds · 29-30 Aug
50% rain odds · 12-12 Jul
50% rain odds · 2-3 May
Most likely to scorch
Odds of at least one festival day hitting 28°C or hotter.
23% scorcher odds · 1-10 Aug
17% scorcher odds · 30 Jul - 2 Aug
13% scorcher odds · 19-19 Jul
10% scorcher odds · 23-26 Jul
10% scorcher odds · 31 Jul - 2 Aug
10% scorcher odds · 6-9 Aug
10% scorcher odds · 24-26 Jul
7% scorcher odds · 9-9 Aug
7% scorcher odds · 6-9 Aug
7% scorcher odds · 22-30 Aug
Methodology: for each festival we take its 2026 site coordinates and calendar window, pull daily precipitation and max temperature for the same window across 1995-2024, and count the years. Festivals without confirmed coordinates are excluded rather than guessed. Weather data by Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).